While direct state interference is now banned, influence strategies surrounding the conclave, which opens Wednesday, have taken other forms: discreet networks, diplomatic games, media pressure… A hushed ballet on the borders of the spiritual and the political.
The hands of cardinals during the Mass of the Sixth of November a nine day period of mourning following the death of the Pope at St. Peter’s Basilica, Vatican, May 1, 2025.
Two meals and a controversy. Conservative Italian media recently accused Emmanuel Macron of maneuvering to try to influence the choice of the next pope, after the French president hosted a dinner with the founder of the Community of Sant’Egidio an influential group in the Vatican and a lunch at Villa Bonaparte, the French embassy to the Holy See, with four French cardinal electors.
“In a splendid setting, Philippe Barbarin, Christophe Pierre, François-Xavier Bustillo and Jean-Marc Aveline ‘set their table’. It is precisely on the latter that Macron is counting to bring the papacy back to a Frenchman more than six centuries after Gregory XI,” reports the conservative Roman daily Il Tempo .
The controversy surrounding Emmanuel Macron’s recent activities near the Vatican has revived an old question: can heads of state really influence a papal election?
While states no longer have any official leverage to influence a conclave, political interest in the election of the Pope remains very real, and attempts at influence have simply changed form.
Receptions, pressure, lobbying
Although “jus exclusivae” benefited France for a time, in theory it no longer does today. This privilege, which allowed certain European Catholic powers (the kingdoms of France, Spain, and the Austrian and then Austro-Hungarian empires) to oppose the election of a pope deemed unfavorable to their interests, was abolished in 1904 by Pope Pius IX in order to establish total spiritual autonomy in the election of sovereign pontiffs.
The last known attempt at outside interference in a papal conclave was in 1903, when Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria tried to prevent the election of Cardinal Mariano Rampolla.
The conclave, which has long been a diplomatic as well as a religious theatre, where popes were elected following power struggles between Catholic powers, now aims to be independent.
The Élysée Palace firmly denied accusations of interference against the president, as states have no way of decisively or officially influencing the outcome of a conclave. This does not prevent certain diplomatic services, departments, or leaders from taking a close interest in the matter.
They are exercised through strategic receptions and appointments within the Church itself, pressure via the media or public opinion, or even through ideological lobbying through different currents in the Catholic Church .
For example, analyses suggest that the election of Pope Francis was influenced by geopolitical considerations, including the desire to balance global power dynamics by appointing a pope from the Global South. His election was subsequently perceived as a response to the expectations of the faithful in developing regions .
Thirty-five years earlier, the election of John Paul II in 1978 – the first non-Italian pope in 455 years – had received discreet support from the United States, for whom the choice of the Pole Karol Wojtyla was seen as a strong signal against the Soviet bloc.
Again, there was no direct interference, but a strong political will to encourage an “Eastern” pope.
According to some analyses, including that of Aaron Bateman, professor of history and international relations at George Washington University, in an article in the specialist media War on the Rocks , the election of John Paul II had caused great concern within the KGB. Yuri Andropov, who was then its head, is said to have expressed his surprise at the election of a pope from a country in the socialist bloc.
Moreover, “a declassified 1978 CIA report presciently asserted that a Polish pope would revive nationalism in Poland and other Soviet-occupied states, posing a serious challenge to Soviet authority and stability,” Aaron Bateman further reported.
According to Olivier Mathonat, a researcher in information and communication sciences, interviewed by RCF , although Emmanuel Macron was keen to meet the French cardinal electors at the Villa Bonaparte, his intervention has little chance of having any influence whatsoever.
“When a president of a state makes it known that he would like a cardinal from his country to be elected, well, there is a bit of chauvinism and it is not very serious,” explains the researcher, who specializes in the study of these influences.
“On the other hand, if there are maneuvers that are carried out in a slightly more diplomatic and insistent manner, that’s something else,” he continues, adding that this could have the opposite effect. “Cardinals hate nothing less than feeling like they’re being manipulated.”
A few days earlier, as the Italian controversy spread through the French media, Frédéric Mounier, former correspondent for the newspaper La Croix in Rome, himself stated on RCF that Emmanuel Macron “has no influence.”
Attempts at influence in new forms
However, the conclaves are not held in a complete political vacuum. While attempts at influence have not disappeared, they have simply changed form.
Even within the Catholic world, certain organisations or communities have a significant impact on internal balances, such as the Sant’Egidio Community, which is particularly involved in diplomatic mediation in Africa and the Middle East , and whose links with the Vatican are long-standing and solid.
Another lever of influence is the media production of “papabile” and the use of social media, television interviews, press conferences, open letters, etc.
Two episodes in particular stood out as deliberate attempts to sabotage the leading contenders for the papacy using underhand tactics.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who is on most shortlists of favorites to become pope, has paid the price. Rumors about alleged health problems experienced by the current number two in the Holy See have circulated on right-wing American Catholic social media and on the website of a conservative Italian newspaper.
The Vatican spokesman denied the report . Italian media, for their part, described the report as an attempt to “sabotage” the 70-year-old cardinal’s chances by implying that his body was not up to par.
“This is clearly an attempt to penalize Parolin,” Italian Cardinal Francesco Coccopalmerio told an Italian newspaper.
Meanwhile, days after Francis’s death, a six-year-old video of Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle singing excerpts from John Lennon’s “Imagine” in 2019 appeared on conservative American and Italian Catholic social media, accusing him of heresy.
An Italian traditionalist website asked: “Is this really the one we want as pope?”
Tagle’s supporters countered that he had sung a shortened version that excluded the lyrics about the absence of heaven and religion.
Two conservative journalists (one British and one American) prepared and distributed to the cardinals, ahead of the pre-conclave meetings, a 200-page book in English and Italian entitled “The College of Cardinals Report,” including profiles of some thirty cardinals and their positions on key doctrinal and societal issues.
On the more progressive side, young Catholics from Northern Europe have written an open letter urging the cardinals to choose a man who will continue Pope Francis’ reforms, saying he has “opened doors and broken taboos.”
Taking advantage of the lingering anger over the Church’s sexual abuse scandals, several groups have, according to Reuters , held press conferences in Rome to stress that the crisis is not over and to assess the actions (or inactions) of some cardinal electors.
As the Catholic Church prepares to open a new chapter in its history, the maneuvers overt and covert serve as a reminder that the election of a pope remains an eminently political event, even in the enclosed silence of the Sistine Chapel.
BY KAYITESI Ange
